Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 892 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 892 · HNL → SAN

departs 7:30 AM HT · arrives 4:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ 7am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.79 in

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 892 · HNL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?