Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 892 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 892 · HNL → SAN

departs 7:30 AM HT · arrives 4:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.37 in

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 892 · HNL → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?