AS 929 · SEA → OGG

took off 10:32 AM PT · expected to land 1:20 PM HT (scheduled 10:15 AM PT → 1:19 PM HT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

LIVE

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 929 · SEA → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?