Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 929 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AS 929 · SEA → OGG

departs 10:15 AM PT · arrives 1:19 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 929 · SEA → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?