Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 92 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AS 92 · SEA → KTN

departs 1:54 PM PT · arrives 3:02 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at KTN more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KTN?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at KTN that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KTN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 92 · SEA → KTN

Odds over time

How late will it get to KTN?