Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 92 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 92 · SEA → KTN

departs 1:54 PM PT · arrives 3:02 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at KTN more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KTN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ KTN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

KTN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 92 · SEA → KTN

Odds over time

How late will it get to KTN?