B6 511 · JFK → LAS

took off 10:15 AM ET · expected to land 12:08 PM PT (scheduled 11:00 AM ET → 1:43 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 511 · JFK → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?