Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
B6 511 · JFK → LAS
departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 1:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 9/30 18%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.