B6 515 · JFK → SFO

took off 8:15 PM ET · expected to land 10:47 PM PT (scheduled 8:59 PM ET → 12:38 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 515 · JFK → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?