Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
B6 515 · JFK → SFO
departs 8:59 PM ET · arrives 12:38 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±7 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.