Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 81
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
B6 81 · JFK → RNO
departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 9:48 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 31%
Fri 10/2 56%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from JFK are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.