Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
DL 1186 · ATL → TUL
departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 3:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 34%
Mon 10/5 15%
Thu 10/8 13%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at TUL that day
↑
2pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.