Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1243
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
DL 1243 · TPA → DTW
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 48%
Fri 10/2 33%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.