Schedule: FAA flight plans.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1471 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

DL 1471 · SAT → LAX

took off 5:13 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:49 PM CT → 5:57 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ 4pm departures from SAT are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1471 · SAT → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?