DL 1749 · MSP → BUF

took off 3:37 PM CT · expected to land 6:10 PM ET (scheduled 3:22 PM CT → 6:24 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUF?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late

↑ MSP is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1749 · MSP → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?