DL 1788 · SMF → MSP

took off 1:23 PM PT · landed 6:24 PM CT (scheduled 1:16 PM PT → 6:51 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from SMF are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ This flight has been late 8% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1788 · SMF → MSP

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSP?