Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1864
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
DL 1864 · DTW → IAH
departs 12:30 PM ET · arrives 2:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 58%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.04 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.