Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
DL 1865 · IAH → DTW
departs 3:27 PM CT · arrives 7:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 46%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from IAH are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.