Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
DL 1865 · IAH → DTW
departs 3:27 PM CT · arrives 7:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 67%
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.65 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.