Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
DL 1865 · IAH → DTW
departs 3:27 PM CT · arrives 7:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 20%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,333 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.