DL 2121 · MSP → SAN

took off 9:02 AM CT · expected to land 10:15 AM PT (scheduled 8:51 AM CT → 10:38 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSP that day

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2121 · MSP → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?