Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2301
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
DL 2301 · TPA → MSP
departs 12:31 PM ET · arrives 2:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 29%
Fri 10/2 15%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.