Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
DL 2529 · AUS → MCO
departs 3:50 PM CT · arrives 7:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 60%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.14 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.