DL 2565 · BWI → MSP

departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2565 · BWI → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?