DL 2686 · LAX → SAT

departs 6:59 PM PT · arrives 11:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ 6pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2686 · LAX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?