Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
DL 2854 · SEA → LAX
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 11:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 20%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.