Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2854 · SEA → LAX
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 11:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/1
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.