Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 531 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

DL 531 · SFO → ATL

took off 2:07 PM PT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 2:00 PM PT → 9:49 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 531 · SFO → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?