DL 856 · DFW → LGA

departs 1:15 PM CT · arrives 5:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

LGA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 856 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?