Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 856 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

DL 856 · DFW → LGA

departs 1:15 PM CT · arrives 5:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±4 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.58 in

LGA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 856 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?