Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8840 LANDED 5:06 AM CT, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

DL 8840 · LAS → MSP

took off 12:37 AM PT · landed 5:06 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↑ 12am departures from LAS are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 8840 · LAS → MSP

Odds over time