F9 1280 · DEN → MIA

departs 6:52 PM MT · arrives 12:52 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ 6pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1280 · DEN → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?