F9 1654 · SAT → MCO

took off 10:06 AM CT · landed 1:33 PM ET (scheduled 9:52 AM CT → 1:43 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

MCO (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1654 · SAT → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?