Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
F9 1741 · RDU → IAH
departs 10:20 AM ET · arrives 12:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 33%
Thu 10/8 27%
Fri 10/9 21%
Sat 10/10 22%
Sun 10/11 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −23 pts in 24h
−23 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.