Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
F9 1815 · AUS → DEN
departs 6:30 AM CT · arrives 7:49 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 11%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from AUS are usually not late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.14 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.