Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 1815 · AUS → DEN
departs 6:30 AM CT · arrives 7:49 AM MT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from AUS are usually not late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.