Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
F9 1815 · AUS → DEN
departs 6:30 AM CT · arrives 7:49 AM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 12%
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from AUS are usually not late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.