Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2269
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
F9 2269 · PHL → TPA
departs 6:33 PM ET · arrives 9:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 39%
Fri 10/2 44%
Sat 10/3 34%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.