Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
F9 2636 · STL → MCO
departs 4:09 PM CT · arrives 7:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 46%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.