Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 2636 · STL → MCO
departs 4:09 PM CT · arrives 7:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3 21%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.