Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
F9 3801 · LAS → SFO
departs 6:00 PM PT · arrives 7:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 36%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 29% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.