Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 3801 · LAS → SFO
departs 6:00 PM PT · arrives 7:52 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 36%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.