Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4184
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
F9 4184 · PHX → IAH
departs 9:04 AM MT · arrives 1:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 40%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.