Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4277 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:06 AM ET, ETA 7:38 AM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Today

F9 4277 · IAD → LAS

took off 6:06 AM ET · expected to land 7:38 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±6 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4277 · IAD → LAS

Odds over time