Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4277
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4277 · IAD → LAS
departs 9:30 AM ET · arrives 11:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/1 15%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
9am departures from IAD are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.