Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
F9 4454 · IND → MCO
departs 10:53 AM ET · arrives 1:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 20%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.