Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4454 · IND → MCO
departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 1:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30 13%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
11am departures from IND are usually not late
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.