Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4625
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
F9 4625 · MEM → DEN
departs 7:48 PM CT · arrives 9:41 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 54%
Fri 10/2 30%
Mon 10/5 20%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −16 pts in 24h
−16 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.