F9 4684 · LAS → AUS

took off 9:57 AM PT · landed 2:15 PM CT (scheduled 9:38 AM PT → 2:35 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4684 · LAS → AUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to AUS?