Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
F9 4684 · LAS → AUS
departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 11:52 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Wed 9/30 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3.66667 mi Precip 1.00 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.